Thunder not in forecast

We're not suggesting that Kevin Durant back down from Kobe Bryant when the Thunder takes on the Lakers in their first-round NBA Playoff series beginning Sunday. But a quick look at the past performance charts says the boys from LA shouldn't have to worry about bringing their Wellies and yellow slickers to the Staples Center. Besides, it never rains in Southern California anyway, right?

On one of my recent posts, I wrote about how eighth-seeded teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs have about a 25-percent success rate in their opening-round matchups against the top-seeded clubs. In the NBA, the chances of a first-round upset are far less -- only 5.76 percent.

Consider that since the NBA adopted its current postseason format in 1984, the No. 8 seed has beaten the No. 1 seed only three times in 52 series (27 seasons times two series in each playoff year).

It hasn't happened since 2007, when the Baron Davis-led Warriors stunned the Mavericks in six games in the Western Conference first round -- the only time this has occurred in the current best-of-seven opening round format.

The other two first-round upsets were registered by the 1994 Denver Nuggets, led by Dikembe Mutombo, shocking the Seattle SuperSonics 3-2 in a best-of-five series; and the 1999 Knicks, powered by Latrell Sprewell in a 3-2 ousting of the Miami Heat 3-2 in their best-of-five meeting. That Knicks squad remains the only eighth-seeded team to reach the NBA Finals, where they lost to Tim Duncan and the Spurs, the first of San Antonio's four NBA titles.

Home-court advantage in the NBA has traditionally been formidable, mostly because of the proximity of the fans to the court and the extra intensity the postseason brings. And clearly, the numbers are even more sobering, going a long way to quiet the talk of upsets. So while the Thunder and their Eastern Conference brethren, the Chicago Bulls -- who take on the top-seeded Orlando Magic -- will definitely show up this weekend, chances are we won't be seeing them for very long.

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Speaking of sobering numbers, the darkness inside Madison Square Garden, Nassau Coliseum and the Izod Center is especially so this year, for this marks the first time that four of the five New York Metropolitan-area professional teams failed to make the playoffs in the NHL or NBA. The Rangers, Islanders, Knicks and Nets will all be watching the postseason on TV; since the Devils came on the scene in 1983, there had never been a playoff year when more than three teams from Gotham did not qualify for the playoffs. Certainly, baseball season began early in the Big Apple. Given the Mets' sputtering start, maybe it isn't too early for New York sports fans to look ahead to the beginning of NFL training camp.

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Saw that the TV informercial "voodoo priestess" Miss Cleo -- remember her? -- was recently on ESPN giving her forecast on what team uber free agent LeBron James would sign with next season. She exhorted the host to "throw away" the Knicks and Bulls jerseys she was holding up before exclaiming that King James' next home will be in Washington, with the Wizards.

But being that "Miss Cleo," who spoke with a Jamaican accent, was outed as a native of L.A. and whose employer was shuttered due to, shall we say, less-than-scrupulous business ethics -- you may want to draw your own conclusions.

Three you later

I was all set to write this morning about how the common script usually unfolds during the NCAA Tournament: Inspired, nothing-to-lose lower-seeded team takes early lead against higher-seeded, playing-on-their-heels higher-seeded team. Lower-seeded team, forgetting what got them to this point, gets greedy and begins to fire up a barrage of misguided 3-point shots that find nothing but rim. Higher-seeded team grabs rebound, ignites fast break and scores in transition, cutting into lower-seeded team's lead.

Repeat until higher-seeded team collects itself and wins.

Quick digression: I'm reminded of a scene from when I covered the Pat Riley-led Knicks in the mid-'90s. The Knicks were playing the Sixers in Philly, and our media seats were on the baseline, about 15 feet from the Knicks bench. Greg Anthony, now a commentator on ESPN and then a sometimes-undisciplined point guard, dribbled the ball up court. With about 19 seconds left on the shot clock, Anthony threw up a ridiculous 3 attempt that bricked off the rim. The Sixers got the rebound, flew down court and scored on the fast break. Riley immediately called time. As the Knicks sat in front of him, Riley said nothing, glaring at Anthony. Finally, with the 30-second break about to expire, Riley screams at Anthony, "What the f--- were you thinking?!?" With that, the buzzer sounded and the Knicks quickly retook the floor.

Back to the present. The scenario at the beginning of this post unfolded twice Thursday night; Xavier connected on only 12 of 28 from 3-point range in a double-OT loss to Kansas State (8-for-19 from 3), and the erstwhile-Cinderella Cornell was only 5-of-21 as it was ousted by mighty Kentucky (only 2-of-16 from 3).

Leave it to someone to buck the trend, though. The Butler did it.

The Bulldogs shot 6-of-24 from beyond the arc against Syracuse, but the Orange -- taking its usual bracket misstep -- fell prey to Butler's defense and was outscored 11-0 down the stretch on the way to a 63-59 elimination. Syracuse, the best 3-point shooting team in the NCAA during the regular season (7-for-19 on Thursday), thus joins Kansas as top-seeded tourney teams that will be watching the Final Four from their living rooms.

So keep a keen eye on the 3-point numbers on Friday -- especially from upstarts Northern Iowa (vs. Michigan State) and St. Mary's (vs. Baylor).

And we'll see if these longshots keep shooting short from far away.